Why Micron doesn’t expect the DRAM shortage to end until 2028
Micron confirms that its new DRAM fab won’t come online until mid-2027
In an interview with WCCFTECH, Micron has confirmed that its new memory fabs won’t have “meaningful output” until 2028. This means that the ongoing, AI-induced memory shortage will not end anytime soon.
Despite breaking ground on the site three years ago, Micron doesn’t expect its new ID1 manufacturing site in Idaho to come online until mid-2027. From there, it will take Micron time to complete its qualification procedures. Only then can this site produce DRAM at scale. This means Micron will take two years to significantly increase its DRAM output. For consumers, those two years will be painful.
Until DDR5 memory output increases or AI-related DRAM demand fades, consumers can expect high DRAM prices. We have already seen the price of Micron-produced Crucial DRAM kits increase to over 4x their original value. In the short term, DRAM pricing is expected to continue to rise.
In order to dramatically increase the number of bits we need more clean room space. And that takes a lot of time. So we broke ground in Idaho in our ID1 facility three years ago. And that’s gonna come online in mid-2027.
We pulled that, it was end of 2027. We pulled it into mid-2027. But you’re not really gonna see real output, meaningful output by the time we get all the qualification done and customers are accepting it and you get the tools, everything up and running until 2028.
Memory manufacturers are scrambling in to build newer production lines, yet constraints of the process eventually forces them to push the timelines ahead by several quarters, which means that for the average consumer, the DRAM shortages could persist for quite some time now, or at least until the AI demand starts to fade away.
– Micron’s Christopher Moore, VP of Marketing, Mobile and Client Business Unit
If Micon is correct, DRAM pricing may not lower until 2028. That’s when they expect new DRAM fabs to come online. Even then, the initial production of these fabs will likely be used to address backorders, which means it could take even longer for the increased supply to affect consumer DRAM prices.
You can join the discussion on Micron’s memory expansion plans on the OC3D Forums.
