“Vendors will go bankrupt” Phison CEO warns

Phison’s CEO has made some dire predictions about the consumer electronics market

Phison’s CEO has warned the world about an incoming consumer electronics crisis. AI’s demand for memory has caused shortages and major price increases for almost all memory types, and it is expected to cause a consumer electronics “die-off”. In fact, Phison CEO Pua Khein-Seng has reportedly said that he expects “many system vendors to go bankrupt or exit product lines due to lack of memory”.

In a recent interview (embedded below), Pua Khein-Seng expects smartphone production to drop by 200-250 million units. According to @QQ-Timmy, who transcribed the interview (it’s in Chinese), basic 8GB eMMC chips have increased in price from $1.5 in early 2025 to $20 today, while automotive-grade chips are $30. Either prices are much higher, or specific memory types simply aren’t available.

PC and TV production are expected to be significantly reduced. Shortages will make production difficult. Furthermore, high memory prices will raise retail pricing, reducing demand.

Consumer electronics will see a large number of failures. From the end of this year to 2026, many system vendors will go bankrupt or exit product lines due to a lack of memory. Mobile phone production will be reduced by 200-250 million units, and PC and TV production will be significantly reduced.

– Phison CEO, Pua Khein-Seng – translation via PC Gamer

Pua Khein-Seng stated that memory manufacturers expect a “demanding three years’ worth of prepayment” from customers, which is unprecedented within the industry. Furthermore, some manufacturers reportedly “internally estimate the shortage will last until 2030, or even another 10 years.”

AI is going to gobble up the world’s NAND supply next

Nvidia’s next-gen Vero Rubin chips are expected to ship “tens of millions” of units, with each requiring over 20TB of SSD storage for memory. This alone is equivalent to 20% of last year’s global NAND production capacity. Now that AI has eaten all of the DRAM it can, it is looking to NAND to fill the gap. Note that this 20+TB of SSD memory does not account for each Vera Rubin system’s data storage… That 20+ TB is to act as a cache…

With both DRAM and NAND supply being hammered, consumer electronics prices may skyrocket.

If NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin ships tens of millions of units, each requiring over 20TB of SSD, it will consume approximately 20% of last year’s global NAND production capacity (excluding subsequent data storage),

– Phison CEO, Pua Khein-Seng – translation via PC Gamer

Phison’s CEO has a clear message. Expect some electronics manufacturers to go bankrupt or exit areas of the market. There isn’t enough DRAM for everyone, and we can all blame AI. Unless the AI bubble bursts, the consumer electronics market is in for a few tough years.

You can join the discussion on Phison’s dire predictions for the electronics market on the OC3D Forums.